Commodity prices are soaring. Grow food.

[olddog]

You can make a still so easy, not very complicated. Legal?

One of my friends makes grappa from his homemade still in his garage.

[synergy]

I have not posted much lately due to anxiety when I read this thread . But today is a good day for me and I had to chime in that in this world the law is not necessarily higher in morality or justice and a still for making your own liquor isn't anyone elses' business any more than having canning equipment in my reckoning .

[12540dumont]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=O77i-GUTASg
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMK3O00Fyo0

Dabei ist, dass (I think...This is that?)

Really rusty in German

Steev, if we get one, I think we can load it onto the trailer once a year and come to your farm too. (You buy the beer).

And Old dog, if it can't be made out of fabric or food, forget it. I have no ability to assemble anything. Especially anything that might blow up.

Nah, I'm going to buy a copper one from Portugal to make "ethanol" which is totally legal. Leo is beginning to see that a $30-40 a month in herb tinctures, it would pay for itself in a year.

As for the other equipment, first the new BCS, then all the parts to make farming a little easier.

I don't want to spend one more year pulling out cornstalks by hand, and feeding them into the chipper shredder. Berta...here I come.

[steev]

Pulling out cornstalks by hand getting old, eh? Grow some sorghum; you'll be eager to get back to the corn patch.

[steev]

There is really no need for anxiety regarding this thread; it's only about possible preparations for possible hard times; nothing is certain, hard times no more than good times. Be well; the World is stronger and more stable than we are.

[synergy]

I have raised two sons on my own for 19 years and feel vulnerable and not so stable. The world is not so stable as you think steev, I am taking three university courses on climate change and sustainability and basically, what the worst case scenario is that you may be reading about or imagining, was what they were teaching when they developed the courses in the year 2000 and the news does not get better. University of B.C. and Melbourne are not flakey science departments . So concerns about commodity prices and resource depletion, are only going to steepen and that is not the bad news . Economic downturn is not even the bad news . The fragile state of our environment and feedbacks causing climate change are far worse news . How the power structures in the world are responding as crisis deepens are even less reassuring and I expect to see that level of humanity at its worse in time. Our individual choices and humanity have their bright spots . One of the ways to mitigate whatever damage we can is to grow your own food locally so I am learning to be proactive organically with permaculture and learning to save seed and share it . I do live with anxiety issues constantly and I just have to deal with them , I choose eating healthy and working out and do not take medication . That said I still suffer from anxiety .

[steev]

I don't minimize the danger of bad practices, policy, or population; I certainly don't deny climate change or science. Certainly we all must deal with things as best we can; in the best of times, we are imperfect, impermanent, and vulnerable.

My daughter suffers from anxiety; you clearly are dealing with it far more effectively than she.

[bunkie]

UK farmers face disaster as 'perfect storm' strikes

www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/16/uk-farmers-face-disaster

British agriculture is facing a wider crisis than the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak of 2001, with around 90% of farmers affected, according to the Prince's Countryside Fund. The charity, established by the Prince of Wales in 2010, is co-ordinating welfare efforts for families in dire need.

"This crisis is unique because it's so broad," said Tor Harris, the fund's director. "There have been others in the past but they have affected particular groups, such as livestock farmers. This affects upland and lowland farmers and even arable farmers, which is something we haven't seen in a very long time. Nearly every farmer is going to be touched by this over the next year or 18 months."............

The wheat harvest is down by almost 15% and much of what was grown was of very poor quality because of a lack of sunlight during the growing period. While 90% of the British wheat harvest in 2011 was good enough to be milled for flour, in 2012 only 10% was of sufficient quality. This has left food manufacturers having to shop abroad, at the mercy of international markets.

[davida]

Well, let's give a little good news about commodity prices. Future prices of old corn (2012 harvest) is selling for $ 7.20 per bushel. Future prices for new corn (2013 harvest) is selling for $ 5.60 per bushel. Someone is confident enough in a good global corn harvest in 2013 that they are willing to "put their money where their mouth is".

Steps onto soap box:

I have heard so many times in my life that the "dirty old speculators" are driving the prices up. Most commidities (corn, wheat, oil, natural gas, soy bean meal, cattle, hogbellies, etc.) are traded on a global futures market. For every contract that is bought, someone else is selling. So an equal number of speculators are betting on an decrease as those betting on an increase. Speculators drove the price of natural gas to a 10 year low in 2012. It appears to me that in the long run that supply and demand dictate the price of commodities. And in the long run, demand is increasing and supply decreasing, so grow food!!

Steps off soapbox

[steev]

Davida: You're absolutely right that in the long run, demand is increasing and supply is decreasing. I think, however, that one should not equate oil to hogbellies. Oil and natural gas are fossil fuels, more mineral resources than crops; they are subject to entirely different technology than agriculture, not being related to current production practices, but only current extraction practices. I think extraction agriculture has been adequately debunked. At some point, I don't doubt that fossil fuel extraction will be seen to be as unsustainable as whaling. Let us hope that this occurs before we really trash the ecosystem, on which we depend, more than fracking and off-shore drilling have already done. What people are willing to buy is not always what is in their best interests, and some people will produce products that are harmful, for profit.

BTW, it was not speculators, but supply, thanks to fracking, that drove down the price of natural gas by over-supplying the market. The notion that the market will regulate things to the benefit of all is tantamount to denying any connection between supply and demand. It is to say that production will rise to meet demand, which when treating of mineral resources is questionable, so many of them being limited, and when dealing with agricultural resources is ludicrous, so much of them being beyond our control. Do you claim that had the price of crops been higher, you could have produced more, drought notwithstanding? I think much of the world would like to know how crops can be grown on demand, without water, price being no object, given speculators willing to take a chance in a "free market".

[davida]

Mar 18, 2013 22:17:15 GMT -5 steev said:

Davida: You're absolutely right that in the long run, demand is increasing and supply is decreasing. I think, however, that one should not equate oil to hogbellies. Oil and natural gas are fossil fuels, more mineral resources than crops; they are subject to entirely different technology than agriculture, not being related to current production practices, but only current extraction practices. I think extraction agriculture has been adequately debunked. At some point, I don't doubt that fossil fuel extraction will be seen to be as unsustainable as whaling. Let us hope that this occurs before we really trash the ecosystem on which we depend more than off-shore drilling and fracking have already done. What people are willing to buy is not always what is in their best interests, and some people will produce products that are harmful, for profit.

Steev, thanks for the comments. My point was that all of these commodities are traded on the futures market with a seller for every buyer and it appears to me that in the long run the price of all will be determined by supply and demand.

With a degree in Petroleum Engineering, I have supervised the drilling of hundreds of wells and supervised the hydraulic fracture treatments (fracking) of hundreds of wells. In my experience, these are good people from the roughneck on the drilling rig floor to the presidents of the companies that care about the environment. And if we make a mistake, there is always OSHA, the EPA, the state corporation commission, the news media and especially the landowner inspecting our work. And personally, I believe that 99.99% of the fracking treatments are safe to the environment.

The oil companies are supplying what the people are demanding. The people use these petroleum products to go to work to make a profit to feed their families. At this time, it would be impossible for businesses in the US to function (including both of our businesses) without petroleum products. And we both choose to use additional petroleum products to help in our farming operations. I am certain that your new petroleum burning BCS makes your farming easier than a horse and plow or shovel and rake. It all gets down to supply for the demand.

[steev]

Davida: clearly we are disagreeing on the details, but it may be the larger picture that is important. That the price of things is determined by what people will pay is not so much the point as what is the value; the late real estate bubble is a pertainate example.

I cast no aspersions on the workers in the field, doubting in no way that they are working for a living for the support of their families, given the employment opportunities available. As to management, I defer to the judgement of my brother, in middle management with Pacific Gas and Electric, which has a monopoly here in mid-California, that upper management is about ego, not concern or competence.

The drug cartels are supplying what the people are demanding. Demand does not equal value. My day job uses one gallon of gas per week, at most; my BCS uses two gallons per month, four months per year. I admit that my truck burns more, but as soon as there is a non-petroleum pickup that I can afford, I'll have one. The only reason I need more than a shovel and rake is if I hope to provide for more than myself; not just sell to, but provide for. Justification by demand for supply is no more than funding the weapons industry to supply the demands of the fearful and/or avaricious. "It is honorable because it is demanded"; really? How do you feel about prostitution? How do you feel about abortion? How do you feel about methamphetamine/crack/heroin? Does a market legitimize a product?

That you cite your qualifications and experience is telling; are you able to recognize your investment and need to justify the industry in which you've worked? I don't doubt your devotion to your family, that is plainly evident, but do you really believe the petrochemical industry is in their best interests, or in the interests of those who live closer to where this stuff is processed?

[davida]

Steev, thanks for the calm and logical discussion. I enjoyed reading your thoughts. Hope you have a great day.

[bunkie]

After The Drought Of 2012, The 'Spring Freezing' Of 2013 Is Ruining Crops Again

www.businessinsider.com/spring-freezing-is-ruining-crops-again-2013-3

The drought of 2012 devastated farms across America. By one count, it was the second most expensive "weather event" ever.
Now we have the "spring freezing," which has seen much of the U.S. flirting with record-low temperatures.

While Midwestern states will probably emerge unscathed, early crop plantings in the southern U.S. are already getting wiped out. Florida sweet corn growers have already lost as much as 45 percent of their early production, according to Greenbook.

Oklahoma growers are also getting hit, Mark Hodges, the executive director of Plains Grains Inc. told Bloomberg's Tony Dreibus:......

[circumspice]

I haven't posted on this thread recently either. Not because of anxiety, but because of frustration & uncertainty. I'm frustrated by my inability to accomplish my goals within a reasonable amount of time due to finances or lack of experience or the ability to do what needs to be done. My few piddly successes pale in comparison to what really needs to be accomplished. I am so frustrated...