Change in the last 20 years of local climate

[richardw]

I thought it might be interesting for us to spell out how or if our respective climates has changed in the last 20 years and how that effected our gardens.

The only noticeable changes ive seen here over that period has been with the frosts, during the summers up to 6 years ago there would always have been a light non-damaging frost during each of the three months, but not now. March would always see the first killing frost but again 6 years without that killer, but will still get those light one or two. Results are i'm getting my corn to dry cob maturity while still on the plant before its knocked down by frost, it used to be a mission getting the corn seed dry once. Spring has not seen a reduction in frosts though.

[rowan]

The changes I have seen here are the hotter summers, and the lack of summer cyclones up north that used to push some summer rain down to us. This means that now we get nearly all our years rain over just two months rather than more spread out. Frosts are not that much different now than they were but we have been getting heavier ones over the past 5 years.

[billw]

Temperature hasn't changed much here, but summers are dryer. It is increasingly common to get no rain at all during the summer. Humidity is still very high due to proximity to the ocean, but a high tends to park just offshore and prevent any storm systems from coming in.

[steev]

On the farm, the annual temperature range has moderated from 12F/119F to 26F/109F.

[richardw]

Thats interesting steev that the temperature range has moderated, you would think inland valleys would start to see a greater range of temps than coastal locations, but then again, i'm so what inland and the last two winters areas out towards the coast saw slightly colder frosts than here, this valley was known as a frost hollow, not nowadays.

[galina]

Here in central England weather is now more erratic, less predictable - winters either very cold and neverending or extremely mild. Last frost comes later, should be mid May but now often first week in June. Summer erratic too. We had no sun at all for 6 weeks a few years ago in July and August, and then we had a couple of years with no rain for 3 months and everything started looking like Texas in August. We used to get strong gales during early spring and autumn just before winter. To do with the location of the jet stream on its way north and south of UK. No longer, we now have had several incidents of very damaging gales when the trees are in full leaf, knocking off ripening fruit too. The jet stream is very different in location and also in shape than 20 years ago, often has buckles and bends in it. A few days ago we had over a month's worth of rain in a weekend, but that sort of thing isn't even worth mentioning. However it is a big problem for folk living in Hemsby and other places where coastal erosion has accelerated drastically and scores of houses are being lost to the sea: www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-norfolk-43465731/hemsby-coastal-erosion-leaves-cliff-top-homes-uninhabitable On the other hand the first frost date seems to be changing more often than not from October into November, and this is a very welcome change. We seem to get a new weather record several times a year now, coldest, hottest, driest, wettest whatever it is, it is more extreme than it has been twenty years ago.

[RpR]

A dozen years ago or so, I was sure that our climate had changed So I could grow Zone 5 plants.
I read another garden forum with people's results of moving warm weather plants into their area and read that some adapt permanently, partly due to planting location and some, even after more than a decade, all it takes is one hard, or normal winter and it is dead or dies back to the ground.

At that time we were having winters that were genuinely warmer, as the one corner of the lot here never had snow on it all winter.
Well , about two years after I decided to not play the warmer weather game, true winters came back, the corner was always covered and we hit 30 below zero again.
During those "warm" years it was also dry years. Several time farmers had strict irrigation bans and many fields had dead corn by the Fourth of July.

The one thing in the past two or so years I have noticed is not higher daytime temp. but often , even when day temp. are below average, night time temp. are above average.
Good for crops like tomatoes but not good overall.
I remember more than a few hot humid summers when I was a youth but the first ones that were bad enough to stick in my mind have come in the past ten years.
Minnesota has a reputation though for Arctic winters and sub-tropical summers.
This is the worst one we have had only exceeded by, 2011 when it was in the nineties with humidity in the eighties around here and I had to go out to remove trees downed by storms .
I remember that year mowing my lawn at my house, which only takes a little over an hour, I had to take a break and go inside to cool/dry off.

I can/will not say anything has really changed as in the eighties when we had dust storms in mid-winter and I hitch hike home in Feb. wearing a fall jacket I thought things had changed.
Mid nineties we were setting records for all time winter lows and snow in the same area in Feb. I had hitch hiked home wearing a fall jacket.
As I said the only item that has me wondering is the night time lows that are really out of sync. from what I have seen in the past.

[reed]

I thought I could compensate for hotter drier summer by growing more in spring and fall, even winter. Last couple of winters though the short but brutal snaps of negative teens F put a stop to some of that. Nothing, even tough hardy plants like weeks of above freezing punctuated with a few days well below zero. Planting during a 80 - 90 F streak in March can still backfire withe hard freeze in May. Cool spells in summer are also new, couple years ago we had highs in the 60s F and rain nearly every day in August, all my corn molded.

As far as hotter goes I don't think it gets any hotter than it ever did, it just does it way more often and lasts for much longer periods. Rain "bombs" are new, not that we didn't always have heavy rains, just that used to they were part of a front that rained over a large area, not these that flash dump on one little spot, leaving others nearby completely dry. I don't think it is possible nor will it ever be to identify a new normal or really to adequately describe a difference between than and now, because now, will be then, tomorrow. 

The only new normal is continuous unpredictable change. Generally, statistically hotter, but it won't always be recognizable in a particular year or season, I expect extremes of all descriptions, hot & cold, wet & dry, storm & calm, to be increasingly more common. 

Already part of my gardening strategy and rapidly moving up in priority is to focus on short time maturity of whatever the crop is. Best way I can think of to get at least some harvest during the hospitable stretches between the extremes.

[add] my observations are from a longer than 20 year span, closer to 60 in fact. Twenty years ago was about the start of a general warming, especially in winter and a general drying in summer. The more erratic extremes started kicking in maybe five years ago.

[walt]

A study of records from the past 100 years, by a KU professor, says that rain has moved from generally even over the summer, to earlier in the summer.  Average hasn't changed much.
Of course, there have been droughts, like the "dirty thirties" when dust storms made life miserable and farming unprofitable.  But long-term averages haven't changed much over the last century.
An exception is south west Kansas, where it has gotten drier.  Grass fires in the past few years have been the worst in recorded history, if you only count human-recorded history.  
Tree ring data going back centuries show that Kansas has been a desert at times, it has been somewhat wetter than now at times.

I loved reading the book "The Oceans of Kansas" which came out a few years ago.  It was about the time when Kansas was a warm shallow sea, and the fossil record of those times.  I recognized most of the place names mentioned in the book, but hadn't known about the huge sharks and turtles and marine reptiles, etc found at those places.  Since then I have visited museums such as the one at Fort Hays State University which have many of those fossils.

[galina]

reed I so agree with every word you said. We are currently in a drought like I have never seen. No rain for 2 months. Summer in the UK used to be 2 days in the 80s. Not over a month. I have 2 inch cracks in the soil right next to where plants are being watered. In many parts of the world there seems to be the heat of the day and then a thunderstorm with a good bit of rain at night. But we haven't had that, just heat and drought. My ample water stores are long gone. It is a new extreme. And definitely no good at all for my peas and many other crops are suffering too

[ferdzy]

I find it very hard to assess change here since we have only been in this garden for 10 years. It is also clearly a micro-climate compared to even 5 or 10 kilometres away. In those 10 years we have had 2 years where it was cool and rainy all summer, 2 or 3 years with high heat and drought, and 5 more "average" summers. I'd say the heat and drought seems to be coming a bit more frequently, but like I said, I can't really pick out a pattern from 10 years.

[RpR]

I check often and night time lows have been above average seven night out of eight by a fair margin, even days when daytime highs are average or lower.
I wonder if anyone has ever done a study of night time temps.
A few years back one of the weather talking heads did make mention of new high night time low highs but you rarely to never hear anything of it.

[mskrieger]

Aug 21, 2018 14:10:08 GMT -5 RpR said:

I check often and night time lows have been above average seven night out of eight by a fair margin, even days when daytime highs are average or lower.
I wonder if anyone has ever done a study of night time temps.
A few years back one of the weather talking heads did make mention of new high night time low highs but you rarely to never hear anything of it.

When I read climate research papers (on occasion) one of the things that has started to come up is higher nighttime lows. Especially in the context of deaths during heat waves. Many places that used to cool off considerably at night now don't, and so people (and animals and plants) that would get a break at night don't, and this contributes to deaths from heat stress.

I know this is especially true in cities where all the asphalt acts to trap heat, but it is probably true in the countryside too, just less so.

[RpR]

Sept 14, 2018 14:43:47 GMT -5 mskrieger said:

I know this is especially true in cities where all the asphalt acts to trap heat, but it is probably true in the countryside too, just less so.

Absolutely!
I rarely use my auto air conditioner and when I come out of the country into even a medium sized city, the wind blowing into the car feels like some one turned on the heater in the car.
That is one reason cities should use cement for streets rather than black-top.
When I used to do landscaping, on hot summer days you almost felt like taking a long detour rather than walk across some of the parking lots.
On more than one occasion you could not stop and stand in some areas with out putting something between your shoes and pavement.
Paving stones and cement can get nasty hot but if you pour some water on it, it cools quickly; do that to black-top , it evaporates quickly and the pavement is still too damn hot.

[steev]

Landscaping; yes, I've got NMT 15 months of that before I retire at 40 years of it. I'd retire yesterday, but I need the income and clients of 35+ years depend on me.

Insolation heating is why I've prioritized establishing trees in my back ten acres, just to get some of the soil shaded to reduce the heat storage. Italian Stone Pines have proven to largely survive without irrigation and they seem to be getting ever more vigorously growing; I'll continue spreading MAP around them, covered by oak leaves, pine or redwood needles (about all the neighbors' horses won't eat).